Tag: economy

Econ 101

As we all know, no institution is more radically progressive, left-wing, and woke than Moody’s Analytics. Sure, they conduct objective analyses and offer insights to businesses about financial risks, but the facts have a well-known liberal agenda, and helping major corporations navigate issues is just the kind of thing that a lefty would do.

Yes, I’m spewing nonsense, but I’m trying to help our Republican friends figure out how to denigrate and dismiss the latest report from a respected, conservative institution that their presidential nominee’s economic policies are idiotic beyond restoration.

You see, Moody’s Analytics recently compared the economic promises of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The study concluded that “a second Biden presidency would see cooling inflation and continued economic growth [while] a Trump presidency would be an economic disaster.”

How can this be? Polls show that more Americans trust Trump on economic policy, and a majority view the Trump years as successful. Well, on the first point, Republicans have never (as in never never never) been better at handling the economy than Democrats. And on the second point, Trump left office with the economy in a crater and fewer jobs than he started with. So maybe Americans don’t know what they’re talking about on this topic.

According to Moody’s Analytics, the convicted felon who fronts the GOP has promised to slash taxes on the wealthy, increase tariffs across the board, and deport 11 million immigrant workers. These policies would trigger a recession by mid-2025, increase the costs of consumer goods, boost inflation, eliminate over 3 million jobs, increase the unemployment rate, and add trillions to the national debt.

What’s not to love about that?

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, rather plainly, that “Biden’s policies are better for the economy.”  

I told you they were left wing.

But if you still want to dismiss this report as liberal fear-mongering, consider that studies show that Trump “continues to suffer from the lowest level of corporate support in the history of the Republican Party,” despite the fact that an estimated 60 to 70 percent of chief executives are registered Republicans. It’s almost like these guys, who live for tax cuts and prize the bottom line over everything, are recognizing that enacting the half-baked notions of an addled criminal with multiple bankruptcies is a little disconcerting for business.

According to the historian Heather Richardson, the GOP is made up of “MAGA extremists and junior varsity opportunists” who are waving “red flags to business leaders.”

To be clear, these fat-cat execs don’t give a damn about wealth inequality, the rights of ethnic minorities, or democracy. But they do care about money. And if even these guys are shouting, “Don’t vote for this lunatic or the economy will collapse,” maybe we should pay attention.

Oh, and sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists have signed a joint letter stating that “Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s” and that GOP proposals are “fiscally irresponsible.”

 But none of those guys are stable geniuses, are they?


The Twist

For nearly half a century, Americans have had to endure the phrase “Reaganomics,” which refers to a supposedly brilliant economic system that has the slight flaw of being a total disaster that never worked. Recently, people have been throwing around the term “Bidenomics,” which refers to a governmental philosophy that actually seems to be effective.

But conservatives aren’t happy about lower inflation and record employment, or a much better economy than anything a GOP president has presided over in decades. In fact, they are angry about it.

So Republicans tried doubling down (and tripling, quadrupling, etcetera) on the idea of limited government, which is an empty phrase that means, “Don’t tax rich people.” This approach is not terribly popular with most Americans. And with reason, because this philosophy has led to developments such as lax antitrust laws, which benefit big corporations but cost the typical American household more than $5,000 a year.

Of course, the GOP has never and will never care if their policies are hated. They are now implying, or straight-up insisting, that democracy should be severely limited or even abolished.

And if Republicans now hate democracy and the Constitution, anything is possible. For example, that whole limited-government thing has recently been revealed as the total sham it always was. 

In a massive shift, Republicans are no longer “committed to keeping the government weak to stay out of the way of business development.” Instead, they are now determined to create “a strong government that enforces Christian nationalism.” 

To do so, they must abandon their supposed core principles and embrace big government. You might think this would be hypocritical and anathema to conservatives. But it took very little to convince libertarian absolutists to change their “tune on the free market and state power to keep up with the ‘New Right‘ ushered in by Trump and DeSantis.”

That “New Right,” which is a lot like the old right but louder, consists of theocrats who despise “the secular values of democracy—religious freedom, companies that respond to markets without interference by the state, academic freedom, public schools, free speech, equality before the law—[and] want to restore what they consider human virtue by using the state to enforce their values.” 

And that brings us back to Reaganomics, which was never really about the economy. You see, “Since the days of Reagan, Republicans have argued that people who believe that the government should regulate business, provide a basic social safety net, protect civil rights, and promote infrastructure are destroying the country by trying to redistribute wealth from hardworking White Americans to undeserving minorities and women.”

During the 1980s and 1990s, all this was said in code. That façade started crumbling in the 21st century. And today, conservatives have dropped the bullshit and taken their argument “to its logical conclusion: the country has been destroyed by women, Black Americans, Indigenous people, and people of color, who have taken it over and are persecuting” White Americans.

At this point, the GOP is very much the party of big government. And unless you are a White, straight, conservative man, you will not like what that government will do to you.


On the Company’s Dime

Recently, the economist Mark Blyth made a disturbing point about the American financial system. I’m paraphrasing here, and to really do it justice you have to imagine the following in Blyth’s thick Scottish burr. But here goes:

Imagine that you’re at a wedding reception. You see a guest get really drunk and grab the bride’s ass. Then he punches the groom in the face. Then he takes a shit in the middle of the dance floor. You find out that this drunk guy is the wedding planner. Would you then turn to your fiancée and insist, “We need to hire that guy for our wedding”?

Well, as Blyth points out, that’s exactly what we did in 2008.

To continue reading this post, please click here.


Slightly Inaccurate

You use just 10% of your brain.

Chameleons change color to match their surroundings.

The Great Wall of China is the only human-made object visible from space.

These are all well-established, commonly known “facts” that are, alas, completely wrong. To this list of misconceptions, untruths, and erroneous assertions, we must add another whooper.

To continue reading this post, please click here.


All This and Worse

In theory, by this time next year we will all be vaccinated against COVID-19. And then we’ll hug and clap hands and laugh about the silly virus.

“That whole killer pandemic thing,” we will chortle. “What was that all about anyway?”

Well, before we banish the coronavirus and the entirety of 2020 into the deep, dark memory hole where we bury all our unpleasant thoughts, let’s take a moment to acknowledge the here and now.

You see, because of the Trump Administration’s unique combination of incompetence, hubris, idiocy, and depraved indifference, we are now at about 14 million Americans infected, with over 270,000 dead. We are seeing higher numbers of death on a daily basis, and soon we will endure the equivalent of “a 9/11 every single day.”

In response, the administration has fluctuated between doing nothing, embracing denialism, promoting quackery, and dismissing the experts, which is “in keeping with their guiding philosophy that there is no problem so great that it cannot be solved by knowing lessa bout it.”

Of course, this is not a recent collapse. Months ago, the administration basically gave up fighting the virus and hoped that “Americans will go numb to the escalating death toll and learn to accept tens of thousands of new cases a day.”

And that’s pretty much what conservatives have done. Hey, over half (52%) of Republicans believe that “the U.S. reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is overblown,” which is double the percentage of Democrats who think the same thing.

So if you’re in the GOP, overflowing hospitals and widespread death is no reason to get all excited. This is despite the fact that “only cancer and heart disease will kill more Americans this year” than coronavirus. In fact, the bug has already “killed more than twice as many Americans as either strokes or Alzheimer’s disease, about four times as many as diabetes, and more than eight times as many as either gun violence or vehicle accidents.”

Again, none of that is reason to be concerned — if you’re a Republican.

If you are not, and you actually respect science, you might be interested to know that recent studies verify “what health officials have been telling us for months: Masks do work by significantly slowing the spread of COVID-19.” In fact, there may be up to “a 50% reduction in the spread of COVID-19 in counties that had a mask mandate compared to those without.”

But of course, our disease-ridden president mocked facemasks for months, and provoked the stupidest culture war of all time, apparently because masks weren’t manly or would hurt the economy or something similarly incoherent.

Oh, and speaking of Republicans and their favorite subject — the economy — keep in mind that mask mandates lead to “greater confidence and spending among consumers,” and “are also linked to higher consumer mobility.”

So if conservatives really wanted to rescue the economy, and not just kill grandma in a futile ploy to boost Wall Street, they would be clamoring for everyone to wear a mask. Also, the conservative insistence that lockdowns would destroy the economy looks even more pathetic now, considering that most economists say “the U.S. would be in a better economic position now if lockdowns had been more aggressive at the beginning of the crisis.”

In essence, the Trumpian approach killed more people and made the economy worse — a win-win only if you are a delusional Republican or a cackling demon from the underworld who loves human suffering.

Yes, the virus was always going to be bad, but this level of calamity is the direct result of an infantile, self-obsessed president and his “incessant destruction of reason, evidence and science in the service of his personal whims, conspiratorial mindset and political requirements.”

In future generations, there will be myriad books, documentaries, and feature films about American life during coronavirus. And they will all come to the same conclusion:

It didn’t have to be this bad. 


Digging Out of the Hole

Yes, we all received a small burst of optimism from seeing Michelle Obama speak. And we got a tiny jolt of hope from witnessing progressives, establishment Democrats, and even a few moderate Republicans unite in defense of sanity. And we savored an infinitesimal sliver of joy from realizing that Trump has only a 27% chance of winning the election.

Well, that was all great. But the fun times are over.

You see, the GOP will hold its convention next week, complete with smirking teens and gun-toting rich people and conspiracy cranks, all of them wildly enthusiastic about the possibilities of four more years of right-wing deviancy and madness. And this gathering of lunatics will make an impact, because the race will tighten, and we all will be tense as hell until November.

But that’s not the extent of the negative news.

Because even if Trump loses and voluntarily leaves the White House (not a given on either count), the United States is so deep into chaos, so submerged into catastrophe, that Biden will spend his entire term just trying to get us back to where we were  in 2008. On a cultural, social, economic, and political level, we are screwed for the foreseeable future.

Let’s start with our favorite virus, Covid-19, which has killed 170,000 Americans so far and continues to ravage the nation. You might be thinking everything will get back to “normal” as soon as that ruggedly handsome and /or stunningly beautiful scientist holds up a test tube and shouts, “We’ve found the vaccine!”

Well, there are just a few problems with that Hollywood ending.

First, most experts think a vaccine is unlikely to become widely available until mid-2021, at the earliest. Keep in mind that this “would be a huge scientific feat, and there are no guarantees it will work.” Developing a vaccine could, of course, take a lot longer. And rushing the process would only lead to a horrific backfire. Also, there are numerous issues with production, cost, and accessibility when it comes to distributing a vaccine. And finally, because we are Americans, there’s a good chance that anywhere from 30% to 50% of us will refuse to take it

So yes, we could easily be years down the road, still fighting this damn bug. That scenario would naturally prolong the economic recovery.

And speaking of the economy, the early talk of a rapid rebound now looks as accurate as those predictions that we would be ditching our cars to buy Segways. No, the economic recovery is going to be long and drawn out, wavering up and down, struggling to take off. The reasons for this include Trump’s botched response to the pandemic, the haphazard methods that the government took to fight the economic meltdown, and the complete lack of guidance on reopening schools. All of these factors have combined to dropkick us into economic calamity.

Also, please note that our last economic disaster under a Republican president (i.e. the Great Recession) was a top-down recession. That is, it hit the wealthy first, then filtered down. For this reason, it was taken more seriously, in that rich people demanded immediate action and got it. This current catastrophe is hitting the poor first and then moving up. And of course, our government doesn’t actually care until the rich donors are suffering, so it will be a while before shit gets real. In the meantime, the housing market will take a hit (sound familiar?), cities will hemorrhage residents, prices will go up, and we will still have massive unemployment and / or parents struggling to work and homeschool their kids simultaneously.

Now, don’t you feel better that the stock market is doing ok?

Meanwhile, on an international level, Trump has damaged America’s standing so badly that we may become permanent laughingstocks. Russia and China are both poised to dominate us. And no self-respecting nation is ever going to enter a treaty with us again.

Back here in America, the conservative judges that Republicans have littered throughout the federal system (including a possible rapist on the Supreme Court) will have us chained to oligarchy for decades.

And finally, please note that our most virulent racists, conspiracy nuts, and homicidal right-wingers have all been emboldened. Do you really think that if Biden wins, they are going to collectively shrug and say, “Guess we were wrong, so we will now go peacefully into the night”? More likely, “if Trump loses and QAnon evolves into a narrative about how a conspiracy of pedophiles won, then it’ll become even more violent than it already is.” And white supremacists will feel even more victimized, with many of them willing to go out in a theoretical blaze of glory.

Basically, the legacy of Trump will not just linger for years, but fester and boil and seep and decay and infect. If everything goes right, it will be years of struggle to climb out of this pit of despair, fear, ignorance, hatred, and paranoia that this man and his sociopathic supporters have flung us into. It may prove to be impossible, leading to a future America where we all wonder, without thinking about it too hard, how everything went wrong.

But on the plus side, Barack Obama gave a pretty good speech the other night.


A Bad Time to Be Brown

A majority of Americans now say they would sooner trust a one-eyed, rabid hyena to lead our country than Trump.

OK, they didn’t actually say that. But they might as well have, because the fact is that most Americans disapprove of our bleach-guzzling chief executive’s response to Covid-19, and the percentage who recognize the president’s bumbling ineptitude is steadily rising.

Foremost among the president’s critics are Latinos, which is only fair, considering that he is highly critical of our very right to exist. You see, we have a new reason to dislike the Trump Administration — yes, an additional reason for our continued antipathy to the most powerful racist in modern American history.

It turns out that Hispanics are “disproportionately dying” because of the coronavirus.

For example, in New York, Latinos make up 29% of the population but are 39% of those who have died. In San Francisco, Hispanics make up 16% of the population but constitute 80% of those hospitalized for Covid-19. Or look at Austin, Texas, which is 34% Hispanic, but where Latinos make up 53% of all Covid-19 patients. And then there is the whole state of Illinois, where “Latinos are testing positive to coronavirus at higher rates than any other demographic group.”

Across the country, “a combination of factors — including working in low-paying front-line jobs and a lack of savings and health insurance,” plus systemic racism and institutionalized poverty, means that “Latinos are shouldering a disproportionate burden of the pandemic.”

But wait, it gets even grimmer. On the economic front, the country’s “widening income inequality gap has led to many minority groups paying a higher price” during this pandemic. About 40% of Latinos, compared to 27% of all Americans, have taken a pay cut, and 29% have lost their jobs, as opposed to 20% of the overall population. 

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (a real thing) is way down, and many Latinos don’t have enough money to send remittances to Latin America, which affects “the well-being of families and cripples the economies of developing countries.”

Also, Latinos often have worse health insurance and tend to have less money saved. Here is where I will mention that “for every $1 of liquid assets of a white family, the median Hispanic family has 47 cents.”

As one final insult, keep in mind that if Latinos dare to go out for a walk, we are more likely to get ticketed for violating social distancing orders, even while white Americans “in privileged neighborhoods flout mask-wearing and distance rules.”

In essence, this crisis has increased the odds that we will die early, fall into poverty, or get cuffed by the cops, all of which is ironic considering that Latinos are more likely to be deemed “essential workers” and are a huge reason that this country hasn’t totally collapsed.

So yeah, it’s a bit irksome.

Now, you might ask what our president is doing to alleviate this grossly imbalanced suffering. Well, considering that he himself is grossly imbalanced, the answer is clear: A whole lotta nothing.

For example, although 86% of Latino small-business owners “reported significant negative impact on their businesses by the pandemic,” a survey of Latino small-business owners who applied for coronavirus relief loans found that fewer than 20% of them received money.

The government’s mislabeled, mishandled Paycheck Protection Program money “went to Wall Street billionaires” and banks, with the result that “Lupita’s taqueria or Juana’s quinceañera shop didn’t get money while Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse and major hotel chains are getting millions of dollars.”

Sounds about right.

Now, it seems odd that this depressing cavalcade of information is not influencing the Trump Administration’s response to the pandemic. After all, the president is charged with ensuring the safety of our country’s residents. There is really nothing in the job description more important than that.

But of course, you just forgot that the Trump Administration is nothing more than thugs, cronies, morons, zealots, con men, hypocrites, xenophobes, and straight-up lunatics.

And that’s on their best day.

No, the orange man with the tiny fingers and the big temper will not save us. Nor will his lickspittle flunkies in Congress come to the rescue. Keep in mind that “because the disease is disproportionately killing black and brown people in cities, Republican powerbrokers simply don’t care about it as much as they would if it were disproportionately killing their supporters.”

So conservatives will not plug in until the virus hits the heartland. By the way, this is already happening.

But even then, Latinos will not be considered “the regular folks,” or have their sacrifices acknowledged or their pain relieved.

As long as this administration is in power, it simply will not happen.


The Biggest of Big Governments

When I was younger, I heard many times that I would become more conservative as I aged. That hasn’t happened.

But I don’t know if it’s because I have stuck to my progressive principles, or because conservatism has morphed into a toxic sludge of racism, ignorance, fear, hatred, and crippling insecurity that most rational, well-adjusted people recoil from.

It could be either.

In any case, one of the reasons that I would supposedly turn conservative was because liberals would alienate me by overdoing it with Big Government.

You remember Big Government, right?

That was the term conservatives used to demonize socialized medicine, an adequate social safety net, or any governmental program that got in the way of rich gluttons devouring ungodly amounts of money as fast as they could steal it.

In truth, so-called Big Government is the default setting in every other industrialized nation in the world. But they just call it government, without the unnecessary adjective.

Oh, I know. Those countries are not as “free” as we are, here in the land where small, absolutely miniscule, microscopic government is a cherished goal and unquestioned virtue.

What has never been explained, however, is exactly how the French government oppresses its citizens, or why Australians tolerate their supposedly despotic government, or why the Scandinavian countries have the highest standard of living in the world. 

For that matter, it’s never explained why American “freedom” consists of higher rates of illness, homelessness, and people going without health insurance. I guess those are just the side effects of all that liberty.

In any case, the whole debate over Big Government seems laughably quaint today, as the U.S. government has catapulted trillions — literally, trillions — of dollars at American companies in order to keep the economy, in the words of top financial experts, from going all bye bye gone now.

Oddly enough, during times of economic disaster, the answer always seems to be bigger government. Whenever there is a financial crisis, even hardcore conservatives don’t say, “time get all laissez-faire.” No, everybody agrees that we need Big Government to step in, and step in now, or we might face a scenario where industries go under, people lose their jobs, and — in a truly nightmarish development — bank executives don’t get their bonuses.

So if limited, tiny government is so amazing, why is it constantly kicked to the curb whenever the financial system gets a bit wobbly? Why can’t our glorious free market take care of itself? And why are conservatives abandoning “GOP orthodoxy to push for even greater intervention in the economy”?

Maybe it’s because Big Government is not a real thing.

It is a right-wing boogieman that the GOP created to scare voters. It is conservatives, of course, who want to regulate what a woman does with her body, and who you can legally marry. Those ideas certainly don’t envision a limited role for our government.

And in the Trump era, Republicans have created “stunning arguments envisioning almost unchallenged presidential power,” which implies that it is not Big Government if the president — or more specifically, Trump — does it.

These are the same people, of course, who champion “Trump’s America First ideology — which is every bit as Big Government as socialism, but without any pretense of a higher purpose.”

What conservatives mean when they talk about Big Government is a system where workers should be happy to sacrifice their very lives, but where huge corporations that hit a speed bump can receive mountains of taxpayer cash with no strings attached. Those corporations’ leaders, by the way, often pause in their counting of all those billions just long enough to scream about excessive regulation and burdensome taxes and government oppression.

But those days may be numbered. And it’s not just because Covid-19 has overwhelmed and outmatched our supposedly first-class healthcare system (a for-profit patchwork that no other country in the world wants to adopt, by the way).

No, it’s also because this economic crisis — barely a decade after the last financial meltdown — has convinced many skeptics of Big Government that they must “see public services as investments rather than liabilities,” and realize that “governments will have to accept a more active role in the economy.”

You see, our current mode of capitalism has proven itself unable to improve the quality of life for its adherents (other than the top 1 percent). It also can’t withstand the slightest jolt without collapsing and dragging millions of people down with it. Twice in the last 12 years, our theoretically amazing economic system has had to be bailed out by its mortal enemy, Big Government. So maybe Small Government isn’t all that robust.

In the near future, many experts believe that economic redistribution “will again be on the agenda; the privileges of the wealthy in question.” Furthermore, conservatives will be shocked and appalled to learn that “policies until recently considered eccentric, such as basic income and wealth taxes, will have to be in the mix.”

After all, it was just 24 years ago when President Bill Clinton declared that “The era of Big Government is over.” Republicans cheered the president then, something they rarely did during the Clinton years. 

But clearly, there was nothing worth cheering that day. 


Saviors on the Horizon

Yes, we’re all surprised that America’s economy is still doing well, considering that we’re two years into the reign of a president who doesn’t understand basic financial systems, seems determined to destroy whole industries, and has had more bankruptcies and failures than anyone should be allowed, to say nothing of the zealots and incompetents who staff his corrupt administration.

Seriously, how are we all not starving to death in abandoned towns and fighting for scraps in hollowed-out cities right now?

In any case, the economy will inevitably turn sour soon. And when it does, we may all rely on, you guessed it, Latinos to bail out America.

You see, researchers have found that “the Hispanic communityin the United States has contributed significantly to U.S. economic growth in recent decades and will continue to do so over the next 10 to 20 years.” In fact, the “outsized contribution of Hispanic immigrants to U.S. economic growth results from thequality of the workforce, not just quantity.” 

In other words, Latinos are one of the main influencers of the American economy, even if certain individuals, media figures, and political parties deny it.

Studies have found that within five years, Latinos will make up about 20 percent of the U.S. workforce and that “the increase in employedHispanic laborcould contribute more to U.S. GDP growth than non-Hispanic labor.” 

Of course, these numbers assume that America will still be around in five years. And if Trump wins a second term… well, it’s best not to finish that sentence.

Now, I know what you’re saying: “Sure, there are a lot of Hispanics out there, stealing jobs left and right. But the only occupations those swarthy immigrants can handle are the low-level, menial gigs.”

OK, maybe you’re not saying that. But trust me, someone in the White House or on Fox News is saying that even while you read this.

The immediate rebuttal to this sad mode thinking is another data point that research has uncovered, which is the following: “Hispanic arrivals have exceeded contemporary native-born Americans… in theirentrepreneurial capabilitiesand integration into economically relevant parts of the workforce.”

That’s right — when it comes to starting new businesses and creating new jobs, Latino immigrants are far more important than your ninth-generation white working class voter waving an American flag. In fact, “foreign-born and Hispanic populations have become engines of U.S. entrepreneurship, especially since the Great Recession.”  

Let’s emphasize this again: “The growth rate of Latino businesses in the United States has outpaced the growth rate of all other groups,” and Latino-owned firms “compose a significant — and still growing — percentage of U.S. businesses.”

The reasons for this include the growth of the Hispanic population, the fact that Latinos tend to be younger than the general population, and the truth that throughout American history, there has been a “universal positive benefit that immigrants have on theeconomy and entrepreneurship.”

Of course, if you really want to get exact, Americans should drop to their knees and thank the strong Hispanic women among us. 

That’s because according to a Stanford University study, Latinas are the leading entrepreneurs in United States. Specifically, immigrant Latinas “start businessesat a higher rate than non-Hispanic white women,” despite the unpleasant fact that they often struggle to obtain credit and have “the lowest rate of financial institution-based loans among all other groups of employer firms.” In addition, “the wage gap for women who identify as Hispanic or Latino is larger than that of any other racial or ethnic group.”

Does any of that institutionalized nonsense stop Latinas?

That would be a resounding no.

So when the economy inevitably tanks, and the coal mines don’t magically reopen, and jingoistic Americans across the nation keep repeating, “Who could have possibly foreseen this disaster?” over and over again, just keep one thing in mind:

Ultimately, it will be the Latinas who save us.


Mixed Messages

In defiance of all odds, the U.S. economy continues to perform well, even if a lunatic who knows nothing about basic economic laws is at the nation’s helm.

Latinos have noticed the prosperity, relatively mild as it is. In fact, consumer confidence among Hispanics has improved “as optimism has grown about their financial situation as well as the U.S. economy as a whole,” according to a new study.

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index — which I for one, never knew existed — is rising, although it continues to trail the overall U.S. population. About 62 percent of Hispanics say they are “financially better off today than a year ago,” and 72 percent of Latinos say, “they will be better off over the next year.” The report adds that 58 percent of Hispanics expect “good times for the country as a whole over the next five years.”

Well, that all sounds pretty rosy. However, one group does not share Latinos’ optimism for America’s continued economic health. That would be our old friends, the super wealthy. A different report finds that “75 percent of ultra-high net worth investors predict America will hit a recession by 2020.”

Wow, that’s quite a different take on things.

In fact, 21 percent of rich people believe that a recession “will begin in 2019, and 50 percent expect the next recession to start in 2020.” And remember, these are individuals who obsess over the economy and financial markets, and there are very few Latinos among them.

So is Hispanic faith in the economy misplaced?

Well, I’ve written before about the Latino tendency to be optimistic. While this is definitely a positive trait, it can on occasion lead to irrational conclusions.

For example, if the above statistics are true, then over half of Latinos think the economy will be solid for the next half decade, at least.

But how does that align with the results of a different study that found“Latino families are struggling with paying down debt and are the least prepared for financial emergencies”?

That study found that over one-third (38 percent) of Latinos “believe the American Dream is disappearing,” and about a quarter (24 percent) worry about being able to care for their families.

The study reiterated that “Latinos have relatively lower accumulated wealth,” and that many Hispanics are looking at a wicked trifecta of debt. That would be the following grim stats:

  • 64% of Latinos have credit card debt. The average credit card debt is $9,652.
  • 63% of Latinos have a mortgage. The average mortgage debt is $181,292.
  • 27% of Latinos have student loan debt. The average student loan debt is $32,650.

In addition, the study found that Latinos are “less prepared than other consumer populations surveyed for a financial emergency, with 19 percent having less than a month of monthly expenses saved.”

What about these numbers leads Hispanics to think that the good times will just keep coming?

Well, the study states the obvious when it points out that “Latino households are more likely to have a broader definition of family that includes extended family” and that Hispanics have “strong family and cultural values.”

The fact that your family has your back may cause many Latinos to worry less about the future. But even that positive value has a dark side, because according to the report, “Latino families are juggling multiple financial priorities, such as a future caregiver role for elderly parents.”

Again, the economy is definitely doing well. But it can’t last much longer, even if we didn’t have an impulsive, ignorant racist calling the shots. Sooner or later — and most likely, sooner — a crash is coming.

Maybe we should brace ourselves for that inevitability, rather than just hoping and feeling good about our bright, shiny futures.

 


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